From addressable work to net value after cost and risk
The model separates technical viability, adoption, task productivity, process performance, business outcomes, financial realization, and strategic option value.
Universal projection formulas
Treatment-on-treated
treated volume = opportunity × eligibility × adoptionbenefit = treated volume × causal effect × unit value × realizationUse when the effect is estimated among work actually exposed to AI. Adoption scales the effect to the broader opportunity.
Intent-to-treat
benefit = eligible volume × assignment effect × unit value × realizationAdoption remains a diagnostic metric and is not multiplied again.
Discounted economics
monthly rate = (1 + annual rate)^(1/12) − 1ROI = (PV benefits − PV costs) ÷ PV costsPayback is the first point cumulative discounted cash flow becomes nonnegative.
Value maturity rules
Theoretical improvement with no demonstrated monetization mechanism; excluded by default.
A plausible operating mechanism and owner exist, but value is not yet confirmed in records.
Observed in an authoritative operational or financial record and linked to the initiative.
A probabilistic future capability or experiment; excluded from base ROI by default.
Evidence and recommendation logic
The Proof Profile reports causal evidence, financial maturity, data completeness, and guardrail status separately. The overall grade follows the weakest-link principle. Evidence grades never multiply financial results, and p-values are never used as financial discounts.
A critical safety, legal, security, privacy, or severe-quality breach blocks a scale recommendation regardless of economic value.